RBI liquidity boost may lower lending rates sooner than expected
Indian lenders as early as next month. Multiple-and simultaneous-central bank measures to boost systemic liquidity will help reduce the rates on instruments such as certificates of deposit (CD) and commercial paper (CP). Lower capital costs should also bring down lending rates earlier than expected.
«The central bank's stance on liquidity management seems to have shifted toward 'accommodative' from 'neutral', as reflected in the large liquidity infusion through multiple tools,» said Soumyajit Niyogi, director-core analytical group at India Ratings. «If this continues, the overall rates in the economy, including lending rates by banks, may start softening.»
However, the bet is on short-term rates easing first in FY26, when lower inflation is expected to help prolong the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) easing cycle.
«Short-term rates will ease during the first half of the coming fiscal year as the RBI looks to ease financing conditions through boosting base money creation, especially when the overall operating and financing environment is facing multiple headwinds,» Niyogi said.
The current liquidity crunch has led to higher interbank call rates, driving up overnight borrowing costs for banks. The weighted average call rate (WACR) reached a high of 6.81% in January before dropping to 6.21% on March 12. Typically, the WACR operates within a corridor, with the repo rate (6.25%) as the ceiling and the reverse repo rate as the floor.
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The three-month CD rate also rose by 25-30 basis points in December.
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