

RBI Policy: Five signals to watch as the MPC weighs a tricky call
Subscribe to enjoy similar stories. As the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) prepares to deliver its policy decision on 5 December, market participants remain split on the central bank’s move this time. The policy comes in the backdrop of record-low inflation, surprisingly strong real GDP numbers, weakening nominal growth and rising external risks.
A Mint poll of 13 economists shows that nine expect the RBI's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to pause on rates, while four see room for a 25-basis-point cut to 5.25%. Here are five things to watch out for in Friday’s policy: The primary question is: will soft headline inflation and a slowdown in nominal GDP give the RBI enough room to extend its easing rate cycle? The consensus is a pause, especially after GDP surprised at a stronger-than-expected 8.2% growth in the September quarter, higher than RBI’s 6.8% projection. Economists at Standard Chartered Bank believe that ample liquidity and front-loaded fiscal spending already support activity, making a rate cut unnecessary.
However, others, such as Nomura, still see a 65% probability of a rate cut, noting inflation’s sustained undershoot of the RBI’s medium-term path. MPC is largely expected to hold rates and retain its neutral stance, while signalling that cuts remain on the table in 2026. Currently, the RBI’s projection for FY26 GDP at 6.8% looks conservative after the back-to-back upside surprises.
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