Record IPOs, muted returns: The other side of India’s primary market boom
emerging market (EM) public equities for a simple reason. Over the past two decades, the MSCI EM index has significantly underperformed US equities despite far stronger economic growth.Nominal GDP in EM economies has expanded roughly fivefold over the past 20 years, compared with about 2.5 times in the US. Corporate profits have also grown faster in EM, rising about 3.3 times over the period.
Yet this growth has failed to translate into shareholder returns: earnings per share in emerging markets have increased only 1.3 times, compared with 2.7 times in the US. In effect, much of the underlying growth has been diluted away before it reaches public shareholders.This dilution happens for two broad reasons. The first is capital inefficiency.
Listed companies in EM frequently raise funds and deploy them into businesses that generate weak returns. US companies, by contrast, have delivered far higher returns on invested capital, allowing them to sustain growth with relatively little new capital. Two decades ago, a $100 investment in US companies would have returned $72 to shareholders while the businesses themselves tripled in size.
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