Reliance, HDFC Bank, Bajaj Finance amongst top contenders to touch $1 trillion market value by 2032: ICICI Securities

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ICICI Securities calculations suggest that India’s first US Dollar 1 trillion market cap (m-cap) stock could emerge by 2032. Reliance Industries , HDFC Bank , Bajaj Finance are amongst the top contenders that could reach $1 trillion market value by 2032 as per ICICI Securities. The macro framework for any company reaching the $1 trillion market value is based on the assumption of reaching peak corporate profitability (7% ‘net profit to GDP" ratio) in the listed space driven by gradual advancement towards peak GDP growth of 9%.

HDFC Bank’s hurdle rate of 25.5% against its historical profit growth trajectory of 20% makes the stock a prime contender for reaching market cap or $1 trillion, with scope for valuation re-rating, said analysts at ICICI Securities. Also read-IRFC, RVNL, and Mazagon Dock jump up to 13% to their respective new highs; gave multibagger returns in last 1 year Reliance Industries could make it to $1 trillion market values if its longer-term profit growth trajectory jumps to 21%, said analysts at ICICI Securities. Bajaj Finance will need to maintain its past growth rate of 35%-40% over the next decade to reach the $1 trillion market cap mark, assuming no P/E re-rating.

Net profit to GDP ratio will be the key driver as per ICICI Securities. Their macro assumptions for achieving a $ 1trillion market cap by 2032 include- Largest stock’s mcap to aggregate mcap ratio will have sustained at an average of ~5.8% over the past two decades (max. 10%/min.