Retail trade group: holiday sales expected to slow to 3% to 4%, compared with 5.4% growth a year ago
The National Retail Federation, the nation’s largest retail trade group, expect shoppers will spend more this year than last year, but their pace will slow given all the economic uncertainty
NEW YORK — The National Retail Federation, the nation’s largest retail trade group, expect shoppers will spend more this year than last year, but their pace will slow given all the economic uncertainty.
The group said Thursday that it expects holiday sales to be up 3% to 4% for November through December, compared with a 5.4% growth of a year ago. Sales for the two-month period will increase to between $957.3 billion and $966.6 billion.
The pace is consistent with the average annual holiday increase of 3.6% from 2010 to pre-pandemic 2019. Americans ramped up spending during the pandemic, which accounted for some outsized sales numbers. For the holiday 2021 season, sales for the two-month period surged 12.7%.
The forecast, released Thursday, comes as shoppers keep spending, powered by sturdy hiring, low unemployment and healthy household finances. That's despite still higher prices — though inflation has eased — and higher interest rates that make getting a mortgage or borrowing on credit cards more expensive. Not to mention shoppers' gloomy sentiment based on multiple surveys.
But bad news keeps piling up including the threat of a government shutdown, the resumption of student loan repayments and new global tensions tied to the Oct. 7 surprise attack by Hamas in Israel. Analysts say that shoppers could become rattled if the Israel-Hamas war is not contained, particularly heading into the final weeks of the critical holiday season. And consumers are turning more to savings and credit cards to help finance their spending. In fact,
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