Retirees, here’s what a Warsh Fed could mean for you
Subscribe to enjoy similar stories.How should you invest now that Kevin Warsh is almost certain to be the next Federal Reserve chair? The short answer: Stay the course.Warsh is headed for Senate confirmation and is likely to take over from Jerome Powell in mid-May. His first meeting leading the Federal Open Market Committee will be in June.
That should reveal his first concrete views on interest rates and other Fed policy.For now, markets aren’t expecting much to change in terms of rates. The Fed’s rate policy is at the “high end of neutral” or “mildly restrictive,” Powell said on Wednesday.
Investors see an 89% chance that the federal-funds rate will remain in its current range of 3.5% to 3.75% by the end of 2026, according to the CME’s FedWatch tool.Yields rose a little on Wednesday with the 10-year Treasury yield hitting 4.4% as hopes for rate cuts dimmed.Warsh faces considerable pressure from President Donald Trump to cut rates sooner, says Rich Weiss, chief investment officer of multi-asset strategies at American Century Investments. But cutting rates won’t be easy with inflation rearing up due to the Iran war.
And Warsh would still need to convince a majority of FOMC voting members to go along— including Powell, who said on Wednesday that he plans to stay on as a governor.If rates hold steady, it wouldn’t be bad for bond and stock investors, assuming yields don’t deviate much.How best to navigate the market?On the bond side, focus on current income rather than seeking higher total returns that would arise from rate cuts (bond prices increase if yields fall and vice versa). Ideally, you want income that exceeds inflation, which is currently running around 3%.Consider where you own bonds too.
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