Risk of UK recession at next general election is 60%, says thinktank

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Rishi Sunak will fight the next election against a backdrop of an economy suffering from five years of lost growth and a widening of the gap between the prosperous and less well off parts of Britain, a leading thinktank said on Wednesday.

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Published by

09 Aug 2023

The National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) said it would take until the third quarter of 2024 for UK output to return to its pre-pandemic peak and that there was a 60% risk of the government going to the polls during a recession.

In its quarterly update on the state of the economy, the NIESR said the poorest tenth of the population had been especially hard hit by Britain’s cost of living crisis and would need an income boost of £4,000 a year to have the same living standards they enjoyed in the year before Covid-19 arrived.

The poorest households – hit by weak wage growth, higher debt, the need to devote more of their budgets to expensive energy, food and housing costs; and with few if any savings – would be 17% worse off by the end of 2024 than they were five years earlier. The richest