Rupee may slide to 96-98 by December-end amid oil shock: Mint poll
Subscribe to enjoy similar stories.Mumbai: The Indian rupee is sliding from one record low to another, but economists say assigning a precise trajectory to the currency has become increasingly difficult amid the US-Iran war and the resultant crude oil shock.On Wednesday, the Indian currency hit another all-time low of 95.80 per US dollar before closing at 95.66 against its previous close of 95.68, according to data provided by Bloomberg. While the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) intervention trimmed some losses on Tuesday, traders believe the central bank is not intervening as much in the currency market.A Mint poll of 10 banks, brokerages and economists showed the Indian rupee is expected to weaken further through the year, with most forecasts for end-2026 clustering in the 96-98 per dollar range.Amid heightened volatility, only five respondents were willing to offer a near-term forecast, projecting the currency in a broad range of 94.5-96.5 against the US dollar over the next two weeks to one month.Most economists expect the rupee to depreciate 3-4% in the current financial year if crude prices remain elevated.“Currently, it seems that the rupee is trying to head towards 96.5 levels.
I will not even rule out 97-odd levels,” said Ritesh Bhansali, deputy chief executive officer at Mecklai Financial Services. For the financial year-end, "I would take an average of around 94.50-95.00 because even if the rupee goes to 97 or 98 levels through the year, it will not sustain.” His assumptions are based on the Indian crude basket averaging $80-90 per barrel in FY27.Crude spike has heightened concerns around India’s current account deficit, imported inflation and foreign exchange reserves.
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