S&P 500 Shatters Past Another Key Resistance: Still a Rebound or Trend Reversal?

investing.com:

Yesterday demonstrated why I was in no rush to give a view on the S&P 500. I feared we might see something like this, and I didn’t feel like getting myself stressed out about it. But I will point out that since the drawdown started in July, we have now seen three rallies of greater than 4%. So far, this rally has been the largest. Maybe this time is different, maybe it’s not.

The funny thing is that the market dynamics still operate precisely the same; stocks still trade with the dollar, rates, and credit spreads. Nothing has changed except that rates have fallen, the dollar has stalled, and spreads have narrowed.

But the problem is that the rally in stocks has nothing to do with the Fed; it has to do with the mechanics of the bond market, not policy. Besides, Powell is talking again on November 9 at an IMF conference with a Q&A session, so he can undoubtedly straighten things out if needed at that point.

Mechanically, remember that the Treasury refunding announcement on Wednesday morning disappointed the bond bears, and the ISM manufacturing data was weak. There have also been no Treasury note or bond auctions this week in the 1 p.m. time slot. These had become an important of the trading day and often a considerable source of bond and stock market volatility.

Much of this can change quickly because we still have a Job report today and an ISM services report. Also, we have the return of the Fed speaker, and next week, the auctions resume with the 3-year, 10-year, and 30-years. So, maybe there is some more room to go here; perhaps we can even climb to 4,400. It doesn’t matter to me, because I don’t think the issues that brought the S&P 500 to 4,100 have passed.

The other interesting piece for the S&P 500 is that these