Sensex logs one of its worst starts in decades. A valuation reset next?

Mint’s analysis of historical data.Nomura recently projected that Indian equities could end the year in the red if crude oil prices remain above $100 per barrel, driven by disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz. Analysts estimate that every $10 increase in crude prices could widen the deficit by roughly $20 billion, or about 0.5% of GDP.The brokerage also expects a potential 10-15% downside to FY27 earnings estimates for the Nifty 50 if elevated oil prices persist.

Current consensus forecasts point to about 16% earnings growth in FY27, compared with 8% in FY26.The market's weak start, however, places 2026 alongside periods of acute global stress. The only worse openings came during the pandemic-driven crash in 2020, when the index plunged nearly 30%, and the global financial crisis in 2008, when it dropped 23%.

The other two instances were 1995 and 1982, when the index fell 17% and 14%, respectively.Of these, only 2020 and 2008 pushed the market into bear territory within the first three months, triggered by a global shutdown and the collapse of Lehman Brothers, respectively.March has historically deepened early-year declines. In four of the five worst starts since 1980, the Sensex fell by roughly 6-7% during the month.

The exception was 2020, when the pandemic shock led to a steep 23% drop.The ongoing selloff is already among the sharpest monthly declines in recent years. The Sensex has fallen about 6% so far in March 2026, making it the second-worst monthly performance in the past decade after the pandemic crash, the analysis showed.Despite such volatility, long-term data suggests corrections are a regular feature of equity markets.