Smallcap stocks under stress but is it time to buy the fear?
Small-cap equities delivered outsized returns in 2023 and 2024, with the Nifty Smallcap 100 Index up 56% and 24% respectively, outperforming both the Nifty Midcap 100 Index (2023: 47% and 2024: 24%) and the Nifty 50 Index (2023: 24% and 2024: 9%).
However, since hitting all-time highs in late Sep’24, the trend has reversed with small-cap equities slipping into a bear market, commonly defined as a 20% drop from peak to trough, with the Nifty Smallcap 100 index down 25%. The Nifty Midcap 100 Index and the Nifty 50 Index have seen a 21% and 16% drop respectively from their Sep '24 all-time highs.
Further, the breadth of the small cap index is much weaker, with 87% of small-cap stocks down over 25% and nearly 25% of stocks down over 50%, a ratio much higher compared to large-cap and mid-cap equities.
Given the significant pullback at the index and much sharper corrections in individual stocks, investors would be wondering if it is the right time to look at small-cap equities. We find conditions are turning positive for improved performance of small-cap equities.
- Macro fundamentals are supportive for small-cap equities outperformance: Headline GDP growth in Q3 FY2025 came in at 6.2%, 60bps higher to the cyclical low of ~5.6% in the previous quarter, indicating a potential rebound from the growth slowdown witnessed in the last few quarters. We have seen a broad-based pick-up in government Capex since Dec’24 and other high frequency indicators like GST collections, PMI, auto sales.
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