Subsidies and protection for manufacturing will harm the world economy
climate change, enhancing national security and correcting for four decades of globalisation during which workers suffered and growth slowed. In the emerging world, governments hope that subsidies can secure a foothold in supply chains as worried Westerners move production out of China. The sums being spent are vast, and growing.
Since they were signed into law, the estimated ten-year cost of America’s green subsidies has risen by at least two-thirds, and is likely to pass $1trn. The Biden administration has also expanded the eligibility for chipmaking subsidies. In June Germany increased its handout to Intel to build a chip plant, from €6.8bn ($7.6bn) to €9.9bn.
India’s central government is subsidising a Micron factory in Gujarat to “assemble and test" chips, spending an amount equal to a quarter of its annual budget for higher education. Eventually, Britain’s opposition Labour Party wants to lavish £28bn ($36bn) a year on green handouts which, as a share of GDP, would be nearly ten times more than America’s. An industrial arms race is under way.
America welcomes it, saying the world needs green technologies and a diversified supply of chips. It is true that an ocean of public money is bound to accelerate the green transition and reshape supply chains in ways that should increase the security of democracies. Alas, the accompanying economic benefits being promised are an illusion.
As we report this week, governments that subsidise and protect manufacturing are more likely to harm their economies than help them. In ideal conditions, promoting manufacturing can add to innovation and growth. Towards the end of the 20th century South Korea and Taiwan caught up with the West thanks to the careful promotion of manufacturing
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