Take Five: Are we there yet?
(Reuters) — As the world's central banks near the end of what has felt like a relentless string of interest rate rises, investors are taking a close look at how consumers and businesses are dealing with some of the tightest credit conditions in over a decade.
China's post-COVID bounce doesn't seem to have happened, while, in the West, Britain and the euro zone have skirted recession and the chances of a soft landing in the U.S. appear to be picking up.
Here is a look at the week ahead in markets from Kevin Buckland in Tokyo; Ira Iosebashvili in New York and Naomi Rovnick, Karin Strohecker and Amanda Cooper in London.
1A TIRED RABBIT
It's been a tough few weeks (or months) for China — the world's second-largest economy: housing market turmoil is flaring up again, growth and private investment remain fragile, and consumption and services are struggling to deliver on that much hoped-for post-COVID boom.
Markets have been disappointed over the lack of concrete stimulus action following the end-July Politburo meeting, and various sets of PMI data have charted a less than clear path ahead.
China retail sales data due on Tuesday will show whether spending can cling to the around-3% growth rate in June — a far cry from the double-digit readings earlier in the year.
Industrial production is due the same day, as is fixed asset investment and NBS housing sector data, which will provide a health check on the all-important property sector.
2HOLD ON A FED MINUTE
As the market’s attention shifts to the Federal Reserve’s meeting in Jackson Hole, Wyoming at the end of the month, investors will be focused on minutes from the central bank’s latest policy meeting, as well as U.S. retail sales.
The Fed minutes, to be released on
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