Take Five: Rain check on those rate-cut bets?
LONDON (Reuters) -As China's troubled markets take time out for the Lunar New Year holiday, U.S. inflation numbers, key UK data, Russia's central bank meeting and an election in the world's third-largest democracy vie for the spotlight.
Here's your week ahead primer in world markets from Rae Wee in Singapore, Ira Iosebashvili in New York, and Amanda Cooper, Naomi Rovnick and Alexander Marrow in London.
1/ NOT YET
For traders trying to bet on the timing of a first U.S. rate cut, life has not been made easy by an outperforming economy that could fuel a much-feared inflationary rebound.
January's stellar jobs number was just one sign that the U.S. economy is exceeding expectations. Its unexpected strength has fueled caution at the Federal Reserve, which has poured cold water on expectations of a March rate cut, lifting Treasury yields and the dollar.
So, attention falls on Tuesday's January inflation data. Any signs that price pressures are gaining momentum again could push rate cut bets further into the future.
Economists polled by Reuters expect a 0.2% rise in consumer prices on a monthly basis, after December's 0.3% increase.
2/ TOP DOLLAR
An exceptional U.S. economy means an exceptional dollar.
As 2023 ended, market-watchers were certain the U.S. currency was headed one way this year, south, with traders expecting as many as six Fed rate cuts in 2024.
Now, powered by blockbuster jobs growth, a flourishing services sector, cooling inflation, a bottoming-out in lending conditions and a roaring stock market, just four are fully priced in.
The dollar is at three-month highs, leaving competitor currencies, whose central banks are juggling slowing inflation and slowing growth, in the dust.
Not a single G10 currency is
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