Bhupesh Baghel factor. Baghel, the incumbent chief minister, had come to be seen as one of the Congress' strongest regional satraps with a stranglehold on the politics of Chhattisgarh after the BJP ruled the state for 15 years and then descended into chaos.
Baghel, who seemed to have everything going for him, suffered a heavy blow from a last-minute weapon of the BJP, the Mahadev Book betting app scam. The case had been building up for months but right before the polls sensational claims of the accused implicated Baghel in the scam.
The allegations strengthened the BJP's campaign against Baghel on corruption issues, including a widely reported recruitment scam.
Why Baghel was the hot favourite Baghel seemed to have a free run with the state BJP unit struggling to rise from the torpor after its 2018 defeat with no strong alternative to its long-time former chief minister Raman Singh.