The Great Himalayan Earthquake: A matter of 'when' not 'if'

In India, the Himalayas are most prone to earthquakes. Experts have highlighted the possibility of a 'Great Himalayan Earthquake'. Any major seismic activity in the region always brings to fore this vulnerability. The impact of such a large earthquake of magnitude of 8 or above can also impact the National Capital Region of Delhi.

A matter of 'when' not 'if'
American geophysicist Roger Bilham has warned that the Himalayas are the only place in the world where a large quake can occur on land. «India slides 2m beneath the southern edge of Tibet every century. Unfortunately, its northern edge does not slide smoothly but is hung-up (by friction) for hundreds of years and catches up in minutes when this friction is overcome. The slip events, which we call earthquakes, are the inevitable and unavoidable consequence of this motion,» Bilham had told TOI in an interview in 2020.

Bilham has explained why the Great Himalayan Earthquake is inevitable even though experts can't say exactly when it can happen.

«Great earthquakes with magnitudes exceeding 8 on the Richter scale have been occurring in the Himalayas every few hundred years. We have geological evidence that earthquakes as large as M=8.7 have occurred many times in the past 2,000 years. However, no magnitude 8 earthquakes have occurred in the past 70 years to release the pressure in the Himalayan arc. Two or more regions of the Himalayas must soon rupture in a great earthquake. It is not a matter of “possibly”. They must occur. Unfortunately, scientists are unable to offer any insight into their precise timing,» Bilham had told TOI.

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«India’s emergency management services are aware of the earthquake risk. They are also aware of the uncertainty in the