Governments do not get to choose the weather, but that does not mean they are at the mercy of the elements. The hardship that would be caused by a cold winter is foreseeable. Shortages of energy are not predestined, but it is reasonable to warn the public of the disruptions to supply, as National Grid has done. The company has raised the prospect of three-hour blackouts. It is not the likeliest scenario, but a feasible one if demand for gas outstrips supplies from the rest of Europe.
Liz Truss does not want to be the prime minister who imposed energy rationing, and appears to favour denial as the method to avoid it happening. She does not flatly rule out any prospect of shortages, but she belittles the risk by refusing to engage with it candidly.
Meanwhile, an information campaign by the business department encouraging simple energy-saving behaviours has reportedly been blocked by Downing Street, ostensibly because of the £15m cost.
That is a small sum compared with the tens of billions that the government is committed to spend on holding bills down over the winter. That expenditure, which will increase the fiscal deficit, will be lower if there is a collective national effort to use energy frugally. A successful campaign to manage expectations and encourage conservation would comfortably pay for itself. The business secretary, Jacob Rees-Mogg, is hardly inclined to make a nanny of the state, but the prime minister turns out to have an even more visceral objection to anything that smacks of government bossiness.
Ms Truss is not a complete stranger to pragmatism. She recognises that massive state intervention is necessary to protect people from soaring energy prices. She has initiated a necessary thaw in relations with France
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