The proliferation of EVs could make decarbonization harder to achieve
India’s electricity consumption is growing at nearly 9% per year, faster than real gross domestic product (GDP). That is understandable, since economic growth involves rapid urbanization, which is electricity- intensive. It is also possible that in the near-term, GDP growth has higher energy intensity beyond electricity.
Given that energy or electricity in India is still dominated by coal and other fossil fuels, carbon emissions are going up, even in per capita terms. Until India reaches middle-income status, it is difficult to imagine how its GDP growth can be less energy- and carbon-intensive. India’s annual coal consumption is close to a billion tonnes and will rise to 1.4 billion by 2030.
The load factors of our thermal plants are improving somewhat, slowing down coal demand growth. The projection factors in the expansion of renewable-energy capacity to 450 gigawatts by 2030 and assumes that India will keep its climate pledge of having at least 40% of its power-generation capacity from non-fossil fuels by then. Adding complexity to the challenge of sustaining high urban-oriented GDP growth while lowering carbon intensity is the ambition to turn mobility electric.
In the last financial year, more than 1 million new electric vehicles (EVs) rolled onto Indian roads. This year, the number could be 50% higher. Presently, only about 1% of all vehicles run on electricity.
India aims a 30% vehicle penetration by 2030. Imagine what it will do to electricity demand. There are two aspects of this.
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