The ‘third scenario’ preoccupying Canada’s government as the U.S. votes
Donald Trump nor Kamala Harris wins a decisive victory Tuesday night.Just eight years ago, it would’ve seemed remarkable that the Canadian government would be spending time at the most senior levels discussing the possibility of dramatic instability following a U.S. presidential election – be it widespread protests, uncertainty around the winner or even political violence.Trump’s victory in 2016 – and the chaos of the following years, culminating in the attack on the U.S.
Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021 – has changed that.The official – who has direct knowledge of the briefings but would only talk on the condition they not be named – said opinions differ within the government about the likelihood of that third scenario, and that most of the discussions have focused on how Canada reacts to either a Trump or a Harris win.
There is general confidence that, no matter the outcome of Tuesday’s vote is, U.S. institutions are strong enough to weather the fallout, the source said.But there have been troubling signs that election denialism and calls to violence have been growing in the weeks leading up to Tuesday’s vote.The Global Project Against Hate and Extremism, a U.S.-based charitable organization that tracks transnational extremist activity, reported last month that it observed a significant increase in “violent rhetoric related to election denialism” in October.“We are seeing the same warning signs of political violence based on election denialism combined with violent language across fringe platforms that we saw in the weeks before the 2020 election and before the January 6, 2021 insurrection at the Capitol,” the organization wrote.“Posts made on (social media platform) Telegram include using election denialism to justify an
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