The west’s tightening of Russian sanctions is a sign of failure
T he tightening of sanctions against Russia announced by the G7 summit in Hiroshima is evidence that the west remains solidly behind Ukraine in its battle against aggression. It is also a sign of failure.
Despite talk of quick victory there has been no knockout blow in the economic war, let alone signs that freezing assets, targeting oligarchs, seeking alternative energy sources and depriving Russia of vital components has brought about a change of heart in the Kremlin.
The lack of instant success should not come as too much of a surprise. The earliest example of the use of sanctions dates back to ancient Greece and their record has been mixed since then. For the most part, turning the economic screw has had only a modest impact. Furthermore, it takes time – decades often – for the measures to work.
No doubt, Russia is feeling the impact of sanctions, but so is the west. Indeed, one reason for the over-egging of claims that the Russian economy is close to collapse is that western policymakers know their own voters are suffering from the collateral damage: dearer energy, rising food prices and falling living standards.
Despite all that, public support for Ukraine in G7 countries remains solid. But the past 15 months have exposed the difficulties in laying economic siege to a country as well-endowed with natural resources and technical nous as Russia. The new measures are designed to disrupt the Kremlin’s ability to source materials for its military, close loopholes, further reduce international reliance on Russian energy, and limit Moscow’s access to the global financial system.
Early forecasts from the International Monetary Fund that the Russian economy would contract by 8.5% in 2022 have since been revised to a 2.5% fall.
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