The winners and losers of oil’s new world order
Subscribe to enjoy similar stories.The war in Iran has triggered the largest oil-supply disruption in modern history.The crisis in the Strait of Hormuz is forcing governments to redefine energy security for an age of geopolitical fragmentation—one in which resilience depends not only on how much oil the world produces, but where it flows, who can get it and which countries are able to absorb the shock when it is interrupted.Nearly 15% of global oil supply has been removed from the market. Crude prices remain elevated above $100 a barrel after initially spiking higher. They will very likely move sharply higher as inventories run dry.But while the oil market is global and rising costs are felt everywhere, the consequences are not evenly distributed.Asia has been hit first and hardest.
Last year, the region relied on the Middle East for roughly 60% of its imported oil. The disruption has been particularly severe not just for crude but for refined products like diesel and jet fuel, which have doubled in price since January.In wealthier countries, pricier oil generally shows up first as inflation and weaker growth.In lower-income importing countries, it manifests as shortages: Bangladesh has limited air conditioning to a balmy 77 degrees. Laos has shortened the school week from five days to three.
Sri Lanka made Wednesday a public holiday. In Pakistan, cricket teams are playing to empty stadiums as fans are urged to watch from home rather than travel.Shale production, which sharply curbed U.S. oil imports from the Middle East since its boom starting in the 2000s, has so far shielded the U.S.
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