The world should take up China's nuclear no-first-use treaty proposal
The world is too distracted with ongoing wars and high-stakes election campaigns to pay attention to a remarkable proposal from China. At the United Nations Conference on Disarmament held in Geneva this February, one of Beijing’s senior officials dealing with nuclear weapons policy declared that “nuclear-weapon states should negotiate and conclude a treaty on no-first-use of nuclear weapons against each other or make a political statement in this regard." There had been some indications towards the end of 2023 that China was planning to engage the United States in a new phase of discussions on nuclear security, but the proposal in Geneva is as breathtaking as it is promising. The world—and India — must approach it constructively.
Now, it is easy to be sceptical about China’s intentions. Although China has always maintained a no-first-use doctrine—Mao Zedong believed atomic weapons were paper tigers—it has used a ‘cat’s paw’ technique of letting its proxies hold out nuclear threats against its strategic adversaries. So Pakistan’s posture checks India as North Korea’s does the United States and its allies.
The cat won’t strike first, but its paws might. Also, the expansion of China’s nuclear arsenal and the deployments of its delivery mechanisms are arguably not consistent with a no-first-use doctrine. Yet, nuclear strategy is nothing if not paradoxical, so the hugely consequential facts that China employs proxies and is beefing up its arsenal shouldn’t be reasons to dismiss Beijing’s proposals out of hand.
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