5 world market themes for the week ahead
Central bank decisions in Britain, Switzerland and Norway are expected to provide more evidence that the global rate cutting dash is slowing to a crawl, while retail sales data from the United States and China will provide a consumer health check.
A supply crisis puts cocoa markets in the spotlight and Europe gears up for a summer of sports with the Euros 2024 tournament kicking off in Germany.
1/ BIG DAY OUT
Britain, Switzerland and Norway hold central bank meetings on Thursday.
The Bank of England will likely dash any hopes the ruling Conservative party had of a pre-July 4 election rate cut. Markets now expect easing later rather than sooner, pricing a roughly 40% chance of an August quarter point move and a 70% chance in September with pay and services inflation sticky.
The Swiss National Bank kicked of rate cuts in March. Another cut on Thursday is seen as 50-50 after steady March inflation. Norway, in no rush to cut rates with core inflation around 4%, releases new economic projections. Australia's central bank meets on Tuesday and is not expected to ease for some time.
After racing to hike rates as inflation surged, a global move towards cuts is a slow crawl.
2/ SALES REPORT
Investors trying to get a handle on the strength of the U.S. economy — and the timing of Federal Reserve rate cuts which are now not expected before September — will dig into the June 18 monthly retail sales numbers.
Retail sales are expected to have risen 0.3% in May, according to a Reuters poll of economists, after they were
