Should we plough up Britain? Many people seem to think so. Even before the Russian invasion of Ukraine, food prices were rocketing. Now they have reached an all-time record. The National Farmers’ Union of Scotland has called for Scotland’s feeble environmental measures – paying farmers to plant hedges, cover crops and introduce beetle banks – to be rescinded, so that food production can be maximised. Others insist that rewilding is a luxury we can no longer afford.
It is true that the world now faces a major food crisis. Climate breakdown has begun to bite. Heat domes and droughts in North America and storms and floods in Europe and China last year damaged harvests and drove up prices. By February, the cost of food was 20% higher than a year earlier.
Meanwhile, Ukraine and Russia produce nearly 30% of the world’s wheat exports, 15% of the maize (corn) and 75% of the sunflower oil. Altogether, they generate about 12% of the calories traded internationally.
Ukrainian farmers are desperately short of fuel and fertiliser. Much of the labour force is now fighting the Russian army, or has been forced to flee. Anything Ukraine manages to produce will be consumed at home. Anyway, the ports are blockaded.
Russia might ban grain exports, as it did in 2010, helping to cause a major price spike in 2011. This threat has prompted other countries – Hungary, Turkey, Argentina and China – to restrict their own exports.
Even more ominously, just as European countries allowed themselves to become hooked on Russian gas and oil, they are also highly reliant on Russian and Belarusian fertilisers. About one-third of the nitrogen and two-thirds of the potassium imported by the UK and western Europe come from Russia and Belarus, and we can expect
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