There is a 60% chance that U.S election will end with an 'Electoral College blowout', says this data scientist
Harry Enten predicts a significant outcome for the 2024 U.S. presidential election, suggesting a 60% chance that the winner will secure over 300 Electoral College votes. Despite the current polls indicating a tight race, Enten explains that the dynamics of swing states could lead to a substantial victory for one candidate. CNN host John Berman questioned how a close race could also result in a «relative blowout,» which Enten clarified by analyzing the historical polling data.
Enten emphasized that while the margins in the key swing states are currently tight, under 2 points, the average polling error in these states has been about 3.4 points since 1972. He provided electoral maps indicating how either former President Trump or Vice President Kamala Harris could potentially achieve over 300 Electoral College votes. Enten’s analysis highlights the trend that swing states often lean in one direction, historically favoring a stronger outcome for the eventual winner.
Also Read: Dandadan: Here’s Episode 5 release date, time, where to watch and upcoming episode schedule
The data expert referenced previous elections to illustrate this point. In 2012, 92% of swing states moved in favor of Barack Obama. In 2016, 83% leaned toward Trump, and in 2020, all swing state averages underestimated Trump's support. Enten noted that similar trends could emerge in 2024, leading to the possibility of one candidate outperforming expectations across swing states and achieving a decisive Electoral College victory.
Enten's insights suggest
