'This changes everything': Trudeau stung by loss of Toronto seat

financialpost.com:

Canada’s Conservative Party won a special election in a district in central Toronto, dealing a substantial blow to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s Liberal Party ahead of a national vote expected next year.

Voters in Toronto-St. Paul’s elected Conservative candidate Don Stewart to the House of Commons, flipping a seat that has voted Liberal in every election since 1993. Stewart won 42 per cent of the vote, according to preliminary Elections Canada data, defeating Liberal candidate Leslie Church, who had just over 40 per cent.

While the result doesn’t change the balance of power in Ottawa, it was widely seen as an important litmus test for Trudeau. Monday’s loss suggests that even its traditional strongholds may be in jeopardy as Trudeau’s popularity wanes and the Conservatives, led by Pierre Poilievre, surge in the polls.

The Liberals won the seat in the 2021 election by well over 10,000 votes.

“This changes everything for the Liberals and for the PM,” Scott Reid, a onetime aide to former Prime Minister Paul Martin, said on the social media platform X. “If St. Paul’s is unsafe, there is no such thing as safe.”

The loss is likely to raise the pressure on the embattled prime minister to step aside before the next election. The Liberals have consistently won big in Canada’s largest city, helping the party hold power since 2015. But Poilievre’s Conservatives hold a double-digit lead in polling, and would be on track to win a majority government if those numbers were to hold up in a national vote.

The next election is scheduled to take place by October 2025, but the date can be moved.

The Conservatives ran a campaign largely focused on the Liberals’ economic record. Canada’s economy is growing at a sluggish pace, housing is