Trump, dollar & trade wars: Is this really how American exceptionalism ends?

American economy really is exceptional. It is richer, more innovative, and continues to expand at a high rate compared to most of the developed world. It has been extra special the last 15 years, with its equity market outperforming any other country as growth prospects for China and Europe dimmed.

But it seems exceptionalism might be ephemeral. Uncertainty around trade and the future strength of the dollar has led some big European investors to retreat from American stocks. And the problem may go deeper. Less than 100 days into a second Trump administration, commentators are already discussing the coming end of American exceptionalism.

Many things make the American economy exceptional. For one, it houses the deepest and most liquid capital markets, which help channel money to its more productive uses. But what makes it truly extraordinary is its dynamism, which underpins innovation and productivity, attracting talent from around the world.

To figure out if our best days are behind us, it is necessary to separate short-term exceptionalism based on current financial conditions and longer-term structural exceptionalism that has been a feature of the American economy for the last century. The short-term boom may indeed be fading, but exceptionalism should endure over the longer term because it is more durable than whatever damage any one president can do in a few months.

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The short-term exceptionalism was never sustainable. The global financial crisis led investors around the world to pile into the perceived safety and better growth prospects of US assets that persists to this day. American companies now account for 57% of global stock market. The dollar is the world’s primary reserve currency and US