Trump's Russia oil tariff threat depends on China, India reaction: Russell
What matters now is the reaction of the other three key players to this latest move by the mercurial and inconsistent U.S. leader.
Do Russian President Vladimir Putin, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping believe that Trump will actually follow through, and if he does what will it mean for their energy situation?
India and China are effectively the only major buyers of Russian oil, so their reaction becomes as important as Putin's response to Trump's latest shift.
Trump told NBC News he is «pissed off» at Putin and will impose the tariffs of up to 50% on buyers of Russian crude if he feels Moscow is blocking efforts to bring about peace in Ukraine.
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«If Russia and I are unable to make a deal on stopping the bloodshed in Ukraine, and if I think it was Russia's fault… I am going to put secondary tariffs on oil, on all oil coming out of Russia,» Trump said.
This is an apparent reversal of his previous friendly stance toward Putin, which had drawn widespread criticism for effectively abandoning Ukraine to its invader and surrendering to Russia's aggression.
The question is whether Trump's threat is credible and likely to come to fruition, which is the assessment Russia, China and India must make.
If Putin believes Trump will go ahead and massively boost what are effectively sanctions on Russia's main export, he may be inclined to back down at least far enough to allow Trump to appear to have «won» in negotiations.
India is in an uncomfortable position as Modi has so