Trump’s tariff salvo sets off alarm on US recession risks while stock markets bleed
Fitch Ratings. The ratings agency said the new tariffs, announced on what is labelled as “Liberation Day” by the US administration, go far beyond what it had previously expected and are already altering the global economic outlook.
The tariff regime now imposes a minimum rate of 10% on all US trade partners, with significantly higher levies on 57 selected countries. As a result, the effective tariff rate (ETR) for EU imports into the US has jumped to about 20%, while the rate on Chinese goods has surged to 64%. These figures compare with Fitch’s earlier March assumptions of 15% for the EU and 35% for China.
Other Asian economies have also been hit hard. Vietnam now faces a 46% tariff, Thailand 36%, Taiwan 32%, India 26%, South Korea 25%, Malaysia 24% and Japan 24%. Sector-specific exclusions—such as semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, copper and lumber—may be negotiated separately.
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«We estimate the changes will raise the overall US ETR to about 25%, which would be significantly higher than the 18% we had assumed for 2025 in the March GEO and the highest rate for more than 115 years,» Fitch said.
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The sharp increase in tariffs is expected to slow down US growth in 2025 to below the 1.7% Fitch had projected in March. The agency also pointed to a recent decline in US consumer sentiment and a noticeable drop in consumer spending growth in January and February, adding to signs of a cooling economy.
Fitch said the higher tariffs would push up consumer prices and squeeze corporate