Trump tariff rollout to retaliate against India & others opens new era of risk for global economy

Donald Trump on Wednesday is set to announce the most expansive US trade restrictions in a century, at a stroke upending the postwar global trading system and posing difficult-to-predict economic risks.

The administration’s plans to impose what Trump calls reciprocal tariffs have left investors, executives, government officials and consumers around the world guessing what lays ahead when he takes the podium at the 4 p.m. White House Rose Garden event. Deliberations are coming down to the wire, with the size and scope of new levies still being discussed Tuesday.

Also Read: As tariff clock counts down, Trump is still up for 'a good negotiation'

The lack of details so far on the structure, size and targets of the levies have left the world “flying blind” heading into the big announcement day, according to Nomura Holdings Inc. chief economist Rob Subbaraman.

“The Trump administration’s proposed reciprocal tariffs mean different things to different people,” he wrote in a recent note to clients. While a direct approach means the US matching the levies that other nations impose on US goods, “we suspect the criteria for US reciprocal tariffs will be much broader than that, and indeed more difficult to quantify.”

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In the crosshairs

While Trump has yet to specify the targets, he and his lieutenants have called out the European Union, Mexico, Canada, Japan, South Korea, Vietnam and India in the quest to punish what they see as unfair trade practices. China’s goods have already been tagged with a cumulative 20% surtax.

Also Read: Gearing up for Trump tariffs, India weighs multiple scenarios

Some $33 trillion in global trade is in the crosshairs and countries from Brazil to China face between a 4% to 90% drop in