For more than a year now, the acquisition of United States Steel Corporation (NYSE:X), the iconic American steel giant, has appeared nothing short of inevitable.
With several bidders, including Cleveland-Cliffs (NYSE:CLF) and Nippon Steel (OTC:NPSCY) (TYO:5401), going head-to-head for the best offer, ultimately leading to a high $ 55-a-share bid from the Japanese giant — a 142% premium to US Steel's stock price on August 11, the day before Cleveland-Cliffs announced its $35-per-share bid -, the full buyout of the US’s second-largest steelmaker appeared on the way to a positive solution for the shareholders of the company.
However, as political and regulatory pressures intensify, making the acquisition increasingly tricky, industry observers speculate that a successful deal may only be possible if US Steel, Nippon Steel, and Cleveland-Cliffs collaborate.
Pricing in an 80% likelihood of the merger materializing in February, JPMorgan more than doubled its price target for X, from $26 to $52. Similarly, Morgan Stanley set its target for the Pensilvania-based company at a high $51.
Both banks were considering that the Japanese giant’s bid was well above the share price and would not pose an issue for antitrust regulation due to its current small market cap in the US market.
In that scenario, Nippon’s bid was a solution to the Cleveland-Cliffs and ArcelorMittal (NYSE:MT) — another early bidder — proposals, which had faced several regulatory hurdles due to the two companies' strong presence in many parts of the US steel industry.
But then, suddenly, what was an already complicated merger took on epic proportions, rendering comments from President Biden and Former President Trump, both saying they were against the deal’s
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