UK general election opinion polls tracker: Labour leading as election looms

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The next UK general election is looming, with most analysts expecting it to be called late this year.

Article originally published by The Guardian. Hargreaves Lansdown is not responsible for its content or accuracy and may not share the author's views. News and research are not personal recommendations to deal. All investments can fall in value so you could get back less than you invest.

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19 Feb 2024

After 13 years of Conservative rule, Labour has been consistently ahead in the polls since the start of 2022.

The latest a general election could be called is January 2025. The prime minister, Rishi Sunak, has the power to call a general election at any point before then, but facing a potential loss, experts think that he will put it off to stay in power for longer.

The Scottish National party (SNP) is not included in the data the Guardian is using in the chart above. In Great Britain-wide polls, the SNP vote sits between 2% and 4% of national vote share. But its geographical concentration in Scotland means it will win many more seats than other small parties with a similar national vote share, such as the Greens. Targeted Scotland-only polls give a much better indication of how well it will do in the next election than the nationwide polls above.

Polls only go so far in predicting who will win in the UK’s first-past-the-post electoral