Ukraine-Russia War: A peace formula will need to balance Russia’s great-power prestige with Ukraine’s sovereignty

On 24 February 2022, Russian forces crossed into Ukraine with the objective of demilitarizing the country and deterring Kyiv from joining the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. Russian strategic planners expected a Ukrainian collapse within a fortnight. Four years on, Moscow has yet to achieve its core wartime objectives of gaining complete control over the regions of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia.

The conflict has already surpassed the length of the Soviet military campaign against Nazi Germany, making it Russia’s longest in Europe in over a century. Despite Russian forces controlling the tempo across multiple axes, they have struggled to achieve a breakthrough, as Ukrainian resistance has slowed their advance, with high losses on both sides. Meanwhile, efforts to find a negotiated settlement have gained momentum, with Russian, Ukrainian and American interlocutors meeting at various levels and formats.

The recent trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi have hinted at a more pragmatic approach, reflected in the participation of high-ranking political and military representatives from Russia and Ukraine, with deliberations on the implementation and modalities of monitoring a ceasefire. Yet, deep divergences in negotiating positions suggest that any peace without addressing these would be fragile. State of the battlefield: Russia’s military strategy seeks to exploit Ukraine’s acute manpower shortage by deploying a swarm of troops across fronts in an attempt to spread the Ukrainian defence thin.