US economy likely generated 200,000 new jobs in July, showing more resilience in face of rate hikes

abcnews.go.com:

The American economy has generated at least 200,000 new jobs for a record 30 straight months

WASHINGTON — The American economy has generated at least 200,000 new jobs for a record 30 straight months. And the streak likely continued into July. But just barely.

The Labor Department’s latest jobs report, out Friday, is expected to show that employers tacked on exactly 200,000 jobs last month, according to a survey of forecasters by the data firm FactSet. That would be fewest since December 2020 – but still a healthy number and a sign that the U.S. labor market remains sturdy despite markedly higher interest rates.

In another sign of strength, the unemployment rate is expected to stay at 3.6%, not far off a half-century low.

The U.S. economy and job market have repeatedly defied predictions of an impending recession. Increasingly, economists are expressing confidence that inflation fighters at the Federal Reserve can pull off a rare “soft landing’’ – raising interest rates just enough to rein in rising prices without tipping the world’s largest economy into recession. Consumers are feeling sunnier too: The Conference Board, a business research group, said that its consumer confidence index last month hit the highest level in two years.

But the Fed rate hikes – eleven since March 2022 — have taken a toll. Hiring has averaged 278,000 jobs a month this year – strong by historic standards but down sharply from a record 606,000 a month in 2021 and from 399,000 last year as the U.S. economy roared back from 2020’s brief but nasty pandemic recession.

There’s other evidence the job market, while still healthy, is losing momentum. The Labor Department reported Tuesday that job openings fell below 9.6 million in June, lowest in more