

US-Iran war oil shock unlikely to unsettle India’s inflation outlook
Mint, citing low prices, adequate strategic reserves, and the government’s ability to cushion fuel shocks from spilling into retail prices.In January, the Consumer Price Index (CPI)-based inflation, under a revised data series, stood at around 2.75%, significantly below the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) medium-term target of 4%.With inflation currently subdued and a newly introduced CPI series indicating broadly similar trends to the old base-year data, the economists said the starting point itself provides a strong buffer against external shocks, likely preventing any immediate pressure on retail inflation or RBI's monetary policy outlook.For 2025-26, the RBI has projected CPI inflation at 2.1%, with the March quarter at 3.2%. Inflation for the June and September quarters is seen at 4% and 4.2%, respectively, suggesting the current price environment is far more benign than during previous geopolitical shocks.“I think the starting point is more comfortable for RBI at this juncture, given that inflation is more manageable now compared with the Russia-Ukraine war, when global commodity prices surged sharply,” Anubhuti Sahay, head of India economic research at Standard Chartered Bank, said.Sahay added that policymakers are unlikely to rush to revise projections or change the policy stance until there is greater clarity on how long the war will last and how significantly it will disrupt global energy markets.
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