US recession storm may be brewing. Deutsche markets survey pushes the possibility towards 50%

A March CNBC Fed Survey put the probability of recession at 36%, up from 23% in January. J.P. Morgan’s chief economist put the odds at 40%.

What does the Deutsche Bank survey say?

According to a Deutsche Bank survey, chances that the United States of America is heading for a recession are close to 50-50, and it has raised more questions and concerns about the direction of the US economy, according to CNBC. The probability of a downturn in growth over the next 12 months is about 43 percent, as set by the average view of 400 respondents during the period of March 17-20.

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While the survey of 400 respondents comes amid low unemployment and a growing economy, increasing consumer and business fears over tariffs and a possible recession could hurt spending, warned economists.

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«The recent equity market correction was punctuated by the 'uncertainty shock' of ever-evolving tariff policy, with investors concerned it could morph into a slowdown or even recession,» Morgan Stanley said in a note Monday.

«What's really at the heart of the conundrum, however, is that the United States might be at risk for a bout of stagflation, where growth slows and inflation remains sticky.»

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What Fed says about US recession?

Although unemployment remains low and most indicators suggest continued, albeit slower, growth, the survey results align with sentiment surveys indicating that consumers and business leaders are increasingly worried about the rising risk of a slowdown or recession.

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