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economictimes.indiatimes.com / 1 year ago
livemint.com / 1 year ago
economictimes.indiatimes.com / 1 year ago
economictimes.indiatimes.com / 1 year ago
Valuations decent, but bond momentum still stronger than equity: Maneesh Dangi
«The whole purpose of creating this chaos seems to be to deliberately weaken the dollar. Gold has been pricing this in for a while now, and it’s already extremely expensive—so don’t read too much into gold’s move yesterday,» says Maneesh Dangi, Macro Mosaic Investing.
World moves in a pattern, which is that if there is problem of growth, then gold goes up. If there is problem of inflation, gold goes up. If there is a fear of recession, then equities go down. Last night, everything went down, gold, silver, Bitcoin. Why have we seen such a massive synchronised sell off last night at least in US markets?
So, if uncertainty increases in general, the typical reflex you talked about does occur. However, we are in uncharted territory. It has never happened before that a country like the US is behaving the way it currently is. The whole purpose of creating this chaos seems to be to deliberately weaken the dollar. Gold has been pricing this in for a while now, and it’s already extremely expensive—so don’t read too much into gold’s move yesterday.
It could just be a classic «sell on the news» situation. But in every other aspect, the dollar didn’t behave as expected. If there were real fears of a US recession, ideally, the dollar should have strengthened. That didn’t happen, likely because the US actually wants the dollar to weaken.
Doge and tariffs will certainly dampen US growth expectations, and as a result, bonds should rally. I’ve made this argument many times: tariffs are actually good for bonds.
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