VanEck Adviser Says Spot Bitcoin ETF Impact is Overestimated Despite Long-Term Gains
VanEck adviser Gabor Gurbacks pointed out that the hype of a Bitcoin (BTC) spot ETF in the market could be overestimated in terms of short-term inflows but could see long-term gains as the window widens.
In a Jan 1 post, Gurbacks wrote on X (formerly Twitter) that people have overstated the impact of a spot BTC ETF in recent months predicting limited inflows at first before a subsequent surge in inflows.
According to him, only $100 million coming from mostly recycled funds from institutional investors could find its way to the market after the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approves an ETF.
In my view, people tend to overestimate the initial impact of U.S. Bitcoin ETFs. I think maybe a few $100mm flows (mostly recycled) money.
Long term, people tend to underestimate the impact of spot Bitcoin ETFs. If history is any guide, gold is worth studying as a parallel. https://t.co/6vvkA9aC09
— Gabor Gurbacs (@gaborgurbacs) December 31, 2023
However, in the long run, the drive by institutional investors will see staggering inflows in the market with the analysts using the past statistics of gold as a benchmark to predict the market.
Going by the renowned gold analysis, bullish sentiment is justified in the sector as trillions are expected although the precious metal has a higher market capitalization before the introduction of the SDPR (State Street) ETF (GLD) in Nov 18, 2024.
After the gold ETF was rolled out, the orbit of the asset quadrupled from $400 to $1,800 with its market capitalization surging by $8 trillion from $2 trillion. To $10 trillion.
Similarly, Bitcoin stands in pole position with a market hovering around $750 billion. However, behind gold’s position at the time, if estimates are precise, the coming years
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