Wait for Nifty to break above 19,800 region: Anand James

economictimes.indiatimes.com:

Nifty bears are likely to regroup once the index is the 19600-670 band, says Anand James, Chief Market Strategist at Geojit Financial Services. “We would wait for a break above 19,800 region to climb back onto the 20600 trajectory. Alternatively, a slippage back below 19450 could set our eyes on 19139-18900, but the chances of a collapse looks low for next week,” he says.

Edited excerpts:How would you read the roller coaster ride amid the fear around Fitch report? Is the bullish momentum intact?Ever since coming tantalisingly close to the 20k mark, Nifty has been on a clear down trend for the last 10 days or so. However, even as the trend leaned lower, every third or fourth day during this phase had a positive close, keeping Nifty not far from 19700, allowing traders to be risk-on. However, last week’s fall broke and held below the 20day MA for the first time since the recent uptrend began in March 2023.

This ushered in panic, exacerbating the fall. Friday’s retracement is on anticipated lines, but is still within the bearish construct, even though we are now back inside a declining trendline channel, which stands a fair chance of evolving into a bullish flag. Such hopes will encourage positive upticks next week as well.

We feel Nifty is likely to clear the 19550 barrier and some struggle, but expect bears to regroup once inside the 19600-670 band. We would hence wait for a break above the 19800 region to climb back onto the 20600 trajectory. Alternatively, a slippage back below 19450 could set our eyes on 19139-18900, but the chances of a collapse looks low for next week.Small and midcaps were relatively less affected this week and signalled strength in the broader market. Which pockets of the market look more resilient