Wall Street cut China’s GDP forecast many times this year. One bank adjusted 6 times
BEIJING – International investment firms have changed their China GDP forecasts nearly every month so far this year, with JPMorgan making six adjustments since January.
That's according to CNBC analysis of the firms' notes. JPMorgan did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
The U.S. investment bank most recently cut its China GDP forecast in July to 5%, down from 5.5% previously.
That came alongside cuts this month by Citi and Morgan Stanley to 5%.
The average prediction among six firms studied by CNBC now stands at 5.1%, close to the «around 5%» target Beijing announced in March.
Citi's latest forecast marks the firm's fourth change this year. Morgan Stanley has only adjusted its forecast once since it was set in January.
During that same period, Nomura changed its forecast four times, while UBS adjusted it three times and Goldman Sachs changed forecasts twice.
The investment banks mostly revised their forecasts higher early this year after China's initial rebound, following three years of strict Covid controls.
The latest cuts come as recent economic data point to slower growth than expected, and authorities show little inclination to embark on large-scale stimulus. Second-quarter GDP rose by 6.3% from a year ago, missing the 7.3% growth that analysts polled by Reuters had predicted.
The disappointment in second-quarter GDP growth, however, is due to official revisions to China's quarter-on-quarter growth last year, according to Rhodium Group's Logan Wright and a team.
The resulting low figure helps Beijing make a case for supporting the economy, the analysts said in a July 17 report. «Understand what you are seeing in this year's GDP data: these are artificially constructed narratives for various
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