Wall Street traders agree that policy pivot is ahead in 2024

investmentnews.com:

After clashing in recent years, Wall Street traders and the Federal Reserve are – for once – broadly in sync: The great monetary pivot is near as central bankers engineer a once-unthinkable soft landing in the world’s largest economy.

That’s the big-picture takeaway after the Fed gave its clearest signal yet that its historic policy tightening campaign is over by projecting more aggressive interest-rate cuts in 2024 – in the process igniting one of the biggest post-meeting rallies in recent memory.

Virtually no corner of financial markets was left out of a cross-asset advance which began Wednesday and extended into Thursday trading: Global shares spiked higher. Front-end Treasuries posted their best day since March. World currencies surged against the dollar and corporate bonds rallied.

In all, it was the best Fed day across assets in almost 15 years, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. In their exuberance, traders largely declared victory for Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s bid to secure a disinflationary trajectory in a still-expanding business cycle. They also ramped up bets European central banks will change tack too. 

“This is a massive paradigm shift on Wall Street, with the most aggressive rate-hiking cycle in decades coming to an end,” said Adam Sarhan, founder of 50 Park Investments. “The Fed is no longer dealing with inflation as public enemy No. 1.”

Investors are now pricing in six quarter-point rate reductions in 2024 by the Fed, twice the three penciled in by the central bankers. Economists at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. revised their forecast to show cuts starting in March. 

Thursday brings monetary policy decisions from the Bank of England and European Central Bank. While their leaders may push back against