What does falling inflation mean for the triple lock and State Pension?

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With UK inflation falling to 4.6% in October, here’s what it could mean for the triple lock, the State Pension and how much you could get.

This article isn’t personal advice. If you’re not sure whether an investment is right for you please seek advice. If you choose to invest the value of your investment will rise and fall, so you could get back less than you put in.

Published on 20 November 2023

It was correct at the time of publishing. Our views and any references to tax, investment and pension rules may have changed since then.

Runaway prices saw pensioners awarded a 10.1% increase earlier this year for the State Pension under the triple lock. And as inflation finally started to drop back, the thinking was the next increase would be substantial, but not blockbusting.

However, this thinking has been undone by rampant earnings growth which has well overtaken inflation to sit at 8.5% over the relevant period. This contrasts with inflation’s September reading of 6.7% which is used for the triple lock.

The triple lock pledges to raise the state pension each April by the highest of:

This means we could see someone on a full basic State Pension get a rise from £156.20 per week to around £169.50. Someone reaching State Pension age under the new system (post 2016) could see their income rise from £203.85 per week to £221.20.

The State Pension isn’t the