What is driving gold’s relentless rally?
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As President Donald Trump’s threats against America’s European allies intensified, the price of the yellow metal surged. When he abandoned those threats, it kept rising. It is already up by more than 17% this year, rising to above $5,000 per ounce for the first time ever on January 26th.
It is not February yet and gold has already shot through many analysts’ forecasts for the end of 2026. The asset is at the centre of the so-called debasement trade, whereby investors worried about fiscal splurges, fraught geopolitics and the collapse of institutional norms sell government bonds and dollars, turning instead to one of the oldest assets for protection. Since Mr Trump’s wall of global tariffs was revealed to the world on April 2nd last year, the S&P 500 index dropped by more than 1% on 27 occasions.
On average, the price of gold rose by 0.6% per day during those sell-offs. But gold also climbs when stocks climb. On the 24 days when the S&P 500 leapt by more than 1%, gold popped by 0.2%.
In recent years central banks in emerging markets, led by China, fuelled the rally. Such hyper-conservative investors have fallen back in love with physical gold, which they hope will protect them amid geopolitical turmoil. Yet flows into gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) suggest a new group of investors are catching the bug, lured by returns and diversification rather than safety.
Gold ETFs now hold more than 4,000 tonnes globally. Their stash grew by 25% in 2025 and is now worth over $650bn. Asian investors are leading the way.
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