What should be a good asset allocation, short, medium and long term? Maneesh Dangi answers

economictimes.indiatimes.com:

Maneesh Dangi, Founder, Macro Mosaic, says “investors should look to increase surface area, all sorts of investors. Those who are already fully invested in Indian equities and are anxious as to why prices are not going up, we should guide them to add at least two more assets – Indian bonds and US equities. ”Dangi also says that since “the markets are intrinsically cyclical, no story including that of India's is secular.

Chasing past performance never helps and by increasing the surface area, investors are increasing the chances that they will get some opportunities and that will help them avoid the fear of missing out in any particular asset class.”When we spoke to you last, you said that you were all in, you were buying perhaps the biggest risk on trade which has worked like a charm for you to buy US tech stocks. NASDAQ is up 44% this year. Good call. What is next?I think it is incidental that we are talking today because it is the second anniversary of me turning bearish on Indian assets and you gave me an opportunity to talk about it in 2021.

I was sort of both bearish on bonds and equities as well as Indian currency then. And what have the markets done in this period in the last two years is actually 0% in US dollars. So you earn about 12-13% because of currency depreciation and you would have earned as much in fixed deposits.

So there is absolutely no risk premium available is what I argued then in 2021. Now the lesson for the last two years is for anyone and everyone that unless you solve for both macro and valuations, do not drive risk. The question of course is has the setup changed and is there something to be extracted from markets now? Macro is of course a lot better today, CAD, currency, crude, rates