When the lights go out: How climate change is impacting J&K’s energy economy

Jammu and Kashmir, the strain on the region’s hydropower sector is growing, exposing the risks facing an energy economy built on snow-fed rivers.The scale of the disruption is already visible in weather data. According to the India Meteorological Department, the Union territory has recorded an overall rainfall and snowfall deficit of 39% during this winter season, with most districts witnessing significantly below-normal precipitation.

Between 1 October and 31 December 2025, J&K received just 77.5mm of rainfall against a normal average of 127.7mm, while the first three weeks of January saw an extraordinary 96% shortfall.These deficits matter because winter precipitation determines how much water is available to feed rivers in the months that follow. Prolonged dry spells and delayed snowfall are destabilizing the snow-fed river systems that power much of the region’s electricity generation, sharply reducing the discharge needed to run hydropower plants.The current crisis, however, is part of a longer and worsening trend.

Weather analysts say dry winters and erratic snowfall have become more frequent over the past six years. In 2024, J&K recorded its driest year in nearly five decades, receiving 870.9mm of rainfall against a normal annual average of 1,232.3mm, a deficit of 29%.

Last year, the region received an estimated 860-920mm of rainfall. It was the fifth consecutive year of below-normal rainfall, following deficits of 7% in 2023, 16% in 2022, 28% in 2021 and 20% in 2020.Even before climate change intensified the stresses, hydropower in the region faced chronic winter challenges, as freezing temperatures locked river water in snow and ice, reducing flows and forcing run-of-the-river projects to cut generation just