Where has India's record wheat and rice output gone?

livemint.com:

₹5 per kg in Maharashtra. But food inflation won’t ease anytime soon. That’s because inflation in cereal prices, especially wheat and rice, is still high.

Cereals contributed nearly as much to August CPI inflation as tomatoes (15.49% versus 15.51%). Why the government has failed to control cereal inflation is a bit of a mystery. The government says that there is record production of wheat this year.

It said the same for last year as well. It has had a ban in place on wheat exports since May 2022 and on the export of atta and similar products since August 2022. From June this year, it banned traders, millers, wholesalers and retail chains from holding more than 3,000 tonnes of wheat.

Smaller retailers and shops cannot stock more than 10 tonnes. Even after these measures, certainly unusual for a time of record production, the government has managed to procure barely 26.1 million tonnes of wheat, less than the current rabi season target of 34 million tonnes. The shortfall was more severe last year: The government procured all of 18.8 million tonnes against a target of 43.3 million tonnes.

The desperate measures—controls and limits on stocks that are being used for the first time in 15 years—to access supplies did not help improve procurement much. They did not cool inflation either. Wheat CPI inflation was 15.7% in August 2022.

It leapt to 25.4% by February this year when market prices were ruling way above the price at which the government had said it would procure wheat from farmers, i.e. the MSP (minimum support price). Panic struck: How would the government procure wheat at such high prices for its free food programme? Buying at market prices in competition with private buyers would bankrupt the exchequer.