Where Heat Waves Lead, Food Inflation Will Follow
For more clues about how extreme weather might fuel food inflation, watch the price of goods made with olives and other commodities following this month’s heat waves. This summer is shaping up to be one of the hottest on record. In Phoenix, temperatures reached an all-time high of 118 degrees Fahrenheit in recent days.
China set a new national record last Sunday, when temperatures climbed to 126 degrees in the northwest of the country. Europe is fighting wildfires in Greece and the Swiss Alps, and most major cities in Italy are under red alerts for extreme heat. Farmers are suffering in important food-producing regions.
Fields in Kansas have been full of stunted and browning plants this growing season, according to the NASA Earth Observatory, with most of the state in drought. The Kansas winter wheat crop is expected to be historically weak: The U.S. Agriculture Department recently estimated the state’s harvest will be 22% smaller than last year.
In Europe, Spanish wheat crop yields are forecast to be 38% below their five-year average, according to estimates from the European Commission. A major Italian dairy organization said dairy cows stressed by the hot temperatures are producing 10% less milk than normal. The long-term impact of global warming on agriculture will be mixed, with some farmers benefiting from longer, warmer growing seasons.
But new weather patterns could upend today’s key food-producing regions. “When weather extremes start to kick in, places that have been breadbaskets for hundreds of years may fail," according to Tim Lenton, professor of earth system science at University of Exeter. More volatile weather also means farmers will face extreme conditions more often.
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