Why the U.S.-China Relationship Isn’t as Predictable as It Sometimes Seems
Midway through 2001, the U.S.-China relationship looked to be in a dire place. Two years earlier, NATO missiles had hit the Chinese Embassy in Serbia, killing three Chinese citizens. Then the spy plane crisis of April 2001—where a Chinese plane collided with a U.S.
jet near China’s coast, killing the Chinese pilot—ratcheted tensions up even more. Many thought that the relationship would keep souring and become a major source, perhaps the major source, of global instability in the coming years. Yet by late 2001, these forecasts seemed foolish or at least premature.
Chinese leader Jiang Zemin and U.S. President George W. Bush exchanged smiles at the annual Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation meeting.
They appeared pleased to be in each other’s company at that Shanghai summit, and agreed to work together on combatting terrorism. The parallels with 2023 are striking. The year began with tensions running high.
Another airborne surveillance incident—the February downing of a Chinese spy balloon that had traversed the U.S.—sent a chilly relationship into deep freeze. Once again, it was thought, a downward spiral in relations was inevitable. The idea that a new Cold War between the countries was under way and getting fiercer gained traction.
The notion that this could spill over into a devastating hot war even started seeming less far fetched. There were also internationally rooted causes of concern, such as Washington’s frustration at China’s coziness with Moscow despite Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and China’s increases in military maneuvers meant to intimidate Taiwan. But then came a November seismic shift.
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