Will BJP's fate change? How Tamil Nadu, other southern states may steer destiny of PM Modi's ‘Abki baar 400 paar’ goal

livemint.com:

BJP, whose 2019 poll record resembled an almost wipe-out, hinting at a more assertive north-south divide in case the saffron party returns to power for its third straight term. However, the poll of opinion polls by NDTV says the BJP might be able to bag two seats in Tamil Nadu, where Prime Minister Narendra Modi made a staggering 10 visits in the past eight weeks. The five southern states of Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, Kerala, and Telangana, and the union territories of Puducherry and Lakshadweep, constitute India’s most economically prosperous region, according to an Al Jazeera report.

The South contributes more than 30 per cent of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP). Despite PM Modi’s pitch that his government has helped boost the Indian economy, the saffron camp had failed to impress the voters in the southern states. The BJP had come away empty-handed in Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Andhra Pradesh, and lost the constituencies of Puducherry and Lakshadweep.

Parakala Prabhakar, an economist and the husband of Finance Minister and BJP leader Nirmala Sitharaman, had said the Lok Sabha Elections 2024 would reflect a “north-south divide". The NDTV poll of opinion polls predicts that the Congress-led INDIA bloc will lead in Tamil Nadu with CM MK Stalin's Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) bagging 33 seats. The AIADMK could get only four seats, the poll of opinion polls predicts.

Tamil Nadu and the larger south India have remained immune to the religion-driven politics that have traditionally characterised the BJP. Tamil Nadu’s politics has for decades been shaped by anti-Brahmanical sentiments. With 39 seats, Tamil Nadu sends the largest contingent of parliamentarians from the south to the Lok Sabha.