Will Israel’s agony and retribution end in chaos or stability?
gravity of Hamas’s crimes. More than 1,200 Israelis, most of them civilians, many of those women and children, were murdered in their homes, on the street, in kibbutzim, at a music festival. Perhaps 150 more have been dragged to Gaza and shut in makeshift dungeons.
Israel’s belief that it could indefinitely manage Palestinian hostility with money and air strikes crumpled early on October 7th, as the first Hamas bulldozer breached the security fence. Hamas has chosen mass murder and there is no going back. Gaza is now awaiting a huge Israeli ground offensive.
Its extent and success will determine the legacy of Hamas’s bloody assault. So will the fundamental choice that Israel’s politicians face after the worst catastrophe in their country’s history: do they unite or continue to exploit divisions for their own advantage? A third factor is the choices of Israel’s Middle Eastern neighbours, including Iran. In the weeks and months ahead Israel’s leaders carry a heavy responsibility to temper their understandable desire for fire and retribution with a hard-headed calculation about their country’s long-term interests and an unwavering respect for the rules of war.
They left their people vulnerable by failing to foresee Hamas’s looming attack. They must not compound their error by failing to see ahead clearly for a second time. The need for vision begins with the imminent ground offensive.
The Israel Defence Forces will rightly strike deep and hard at Hamas. But how deep and how hard? Israel will be tempted to unleash a spasm of briefly satisfying violence. Its defence minister has called Hamas fighters “human animals", and announced a blockade of food, water and energy.
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